395) 'Sword of Damocles' dangling over Turkey

Armenian genocide resolutions, if approved by the US House of Representatives, may paralyze already damaged Turkish-US relations

Turkey's relationship with the United States, already damaged by disputes over Iraq, may deteriorate at an unprecedented rate in the event the U.S. House of Representatives approves two "Armenian genocide" resolutions passed by a house panel last week, Turkish diplomats warned. . . .

"We don't expect this to happen, but if the resolutions are approved by a floor vote at the House of Representatives, it will mean that the United States legislation in one way or another will have labeled the Armenian events as a genocide, and the effect will have catastrophic dimensions in terms of ties between Turkey and the United States," said onediplomat. "The Turkish people will never forget this, and no Turkish government may remain indifferent to what the people think."

Despite objections by U.S. President George W. Bush's administration, the House of Representatives' International Relations Committee on Sept. 15 endorsed the two resolutions denouncing the deaths of Armenians early last century as genocide. The House is the lower house of the U.S. Congress, while the Senate is its higher house.

The committee voted 35-11 to approve a resolution, sponsored by Democratic lawmakers, calling on Turkey to acknowledge the culpability of its predecessor state, the Ottoman Empire, in the 1915-1923 deaths.

A second resolution, sponsored by Republican representatives, passed 40-7, calling for U.S. foreign policy to reflect an understanding of the "Armenian genocide" and for the president to recognize the deaths as genocide.

It is not clear if or when the resolutions will be brought before the full House of Representatives.

In private talks Turkish diplomats say House Speaker Dennis Hastert, a Republican lawmaker close to Bush, is not expected to bring the resolutions to a floor vote at the House because he is aware of the grave consequences in Turkish-U.S. relations.

However, Armenian groups also claim that they have Hastert's support for their cause.

"As we work to build on the committee's favorable action, we look to Speaker Hastert to honor his pledge and schedule a full floor vote on the Armenian Genocide legislation at the earliest opportunity," said Ken Hachikian, chairman of the Armenian National Committee of America.

Most analysts said that normally there was no reason why Bush's administration would "allow" Hastert to bring the resolutions to a full House vote. "First, this is not an election year when the two leading parties would vie for Armenian votes in states like California; second, the administration is aware of Turkey's sensitivity on the matter; and third, theArmenians voted for Senator John Kerry, Bush's Democratic rival, in last year's presidential election," said one Washington-based analyst.

"But the resolutions could have the effect of the 'Sword of Damocles' for Turkey. If things worsen generally in one way or another between Turkey and the United States, the situation may change," he said. "Also shortly before congressional elections in Nov. 2006, anything could happen. So there is no strict guarantee for Turkey that the resolutions indefinitely will be shelved by Hastert."

Armenians claim that the Ottoman empire caused the deaths of up to 1.5 million of their kinsmen in a planned genocide. Turkey says the toll is wildly inflated and that Armenians were killed or displaced in civil unrest during the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey says many Muslims also lost their lives. Ankara believes that Armenia will use the genocide claims to make territorial demands against Turkey.

Matt Reynolds, assistant secretary of state for legislative affairs, sent a letter to committee members saying the debate "could damage U.S.-Turkish relations and could undermine progress by Ankara and Yerevan as they begin quiet talks to address the issue and look to the future."

Reynolds emphasized Turkey's role as an important strategic U.S. ally, saying it is a democratic, secular state bordering Iraq and a NATO member. He said the "resolutions could undermine efforts to rebuild a partnership between the United States and Turkey in pursuit of America's broad national security interests in the eastern Mediterranean, Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East."

Nevertheless, the sponsor of the first resolution, Democratic Representative Adam Schiff, said the U.S.-Turkish alliance "cannot be used as a tool to escape from the past no matter how uncomfortable that past is." Schiff represents a California district that includes tens of thousands of Armenian voters.

However, the committee's top two lawmakers caused Turkey's worst disappointment.

Tom Lantos, the panel's top Democrat, said he was reversing his own position in supporting the resolution. During a similar debate at the same committee five years ago Lantos, the only Holocaust survivor in Congress, staunchly defended Turkey against genocide allegations.

This time he also said the Armenian deaths did not fit into the definition of genocide but that for political considerations, he would vote for both resolutions. Lantos denounced Turkey for refusing to allow U.S. forces to use its territory to attack Iraq in the 2003 war and for seeking "closer relations" with Syria. "Quid pro quo," Lantos said in announcing his vote's direction.

The committee's Republican chairman, Henry Hyde, said he doubted the relationship with Turkey would be harmed and that the resolutions did not hold Turkey or the Turkish people accountable for the killings. He said the resolutions "merely recognize the fact that the authorities of the Ottoman Empire deliberately slaughtered the majority of the Armenian community in their empire."

"Denial of that fact cannot be justified on the basis of expediency or fear that speaking the truth will do us harm," he said.

Before the committee's session, the Turks thought that both Hyde and Lantos would oppose the Armenian resolutions.

In formal remarks some Turkish officials sought to play down the significance of the House panel's approval of the resolutions.

But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in New York on Aug. 20 during a U.N. leaders' summit that "such moves" did not serve efforts for peace.



Thursday, September 22, 2005
WASHINGTON - Exclusive by TDN Defense Desk